Trump’s large-scale deportation plans may face obstacles due to an unprecedented backlog in immigration courts

Former President Donald Trump has vowed to carry out widespread deportations during his administration. However, attorneys, judges, and other professionals within the U.S. immigration court system caution that an influx of new cases could overwhelm an already overburdened system.

In the first month of Trump’s second term, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers have detained over 10,000 immigrants.

Some detainees, such as those with prior removal orders or criminal records, can be deported immediately. However, many will join the already massive backlog of more than 3.5 million pending cases in immigration courts nationwide, a process that can take years to resolve. This backlog has left many immigrants in legal limbo, including asylum seekers like Maria (a pseudonym used by NBC Bay Area), who fled Mexico with her young son two years ago after being extorted by local cartels.

“There were nights I didn’t sleep at all,” Maria said in Spanish. “The emotional toll was so severe that I prioritized saving my son’s life. That’s why we came here.”

Maria, who has a work permit and driver’s license but not a green card, recently had her asylum hearing postponed to the end of next year, prolonging her uncertain status. Despite her pending case, the rhetoric from the White House has left her fearful of leaving her home. “I’m more afraid,” she said. “I’m even afraid to drive.”

Her immigration attorney, Andrew Newcomb, noted that it is common for asylum seekers to wait over six years for a decision on their cases.

“There is a massive immigration backlog,” Newcomb said.

He warned that the administration’s large-scale deportation efforts could significantly increase wait times and further strain an already overwhelmed system.

“A lot of nonprofit organizations are at capacity and unable to take on more cases,” Newcomb added.

California has the third-largest immigration court backlog in the country, trailing only Florida and Texas, with more than 400,000 open cases. The number of pending cases in the state has more than doubled in the past four years, a trend attributed to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and heightened enforcement at the southern border.

Additionally, the U.S. has seen a surge in asylum applications in recent years. According to data from the Congressional Research Service, more than 800,000 new asylum requests were filed in fiscal year 2024—up from around 200,000 a decade ago.

Retired U.S. immigration court judge James Fujimoto expressed skepticism about the feasibility of mass deportations, citing logistical and financial constraints.

“This idea of mass deportation seems unworkable, not just because of cost, but also due to logistics,” Fujimoto said.

He highlighted chronic understaffing and underfunding within immigration courts, noting that judges often manage over 4,000 cases at once.

“If you want to improve efficiency, hiring more support staff for judges is essential—just increasing the number of judges alone won’t fix the issue,” he explained.

Despite efforts to expand the system, the backlog continues to grow. Over the past decade, the number of immigration judges has nearly tripled, and the number of immigration courtrooms has almost doubled. However, a 2023 report from the Congressional Research Service estimated that even with 700 additional judges—about double the current number—it would still take a decade to clear the backlog.

Last summer, a bipartisan immigration reform bill that included provisions to hire more judges failed after then-candidate Trump urged Republicans to oppose it.

Fujimoto pointed to shifting political priorities as a major factor in the backlog’s growth. Immigration courts operate under the U.S. Department of Justice rather than as independent entities, making them vulnerable to frequent policy changes driven by executive orders.

“I find it hard to believe that this could be fixed without legislation,” Fujimoto said. “Otherwise, the system just keeps going back and forth—one administration implements an executive order, and the next one reverses it.”

Some legal experts, including Newcomb, argue that dismissing cases involving non-criminal migrants could help alleviate court congestion. Traditionally, judges and federal prosecutors have had the discretion to prioritize more serious cases, but this flexibility was restricted during Trump’s first term.

“When you take away discretion from both prosecutors and judges, it creates gridlock—like the one we’re seeing now,” Newcomb said.

NBC Bay Area sought comment from the Trump administration regarding its plan to address the growing immigration court backlog.

In response, the White House issued a statement: “During his first term, [President Trump] cut red tape to reduce massive immigration backlogs, and he will leave no stone unturned in fulfilling his promise to restore order at our border, deport criminal aliens, and fully enforce long-ignored immigration laws.”

Maria has a routine check-in with ICE later this year, which she is required to attend. Despite having an attorney and an ongoing asylum case, she remains apprehensive about what could happen.

“Yes, it scares me,” she admitted. “I have to go because I didn’t come here to steal, kill, or do anything bad—on the contrary, quite the opposite.”

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