Bay Area firefighters are gearing up for what’s expected to be a tough wildfire season this summer.

According to a new seasonal outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services, an early start to fire season is likely, with elevated wildfire risks in June, July, and August. These challenges are made worse by recent federal budget cuts.

Brett Lutz, a fire meteorologist with the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center, explained that the forecast is based on two main elements: above-average temperatures and fuel conditions. These include how much grass, brush, and trees are present and how dry they are.

Although recent years of steady rain and snow have eased drought in much of Northern California, they’ve also led to significant vegetation growth. As these fuels dry out, they can fuel large fires. Lutz noted that inland areas are already experiencing early drying of grass and brush, signaling an earlier fire season.

The report also warned about an increased chance of “flash droughts,” where extreme heat rapidly dries out vegetation. Lutz cited the early July 2024 heatwave that led to the massive Park Fire in Butte and Tehama counties, which burned nearly 430,000 acres. July and August are also expected to bring more dry northerly winds—an element that significantly worsens fire conditions.

May’s weather is expected to be inconsistent, with periods of moisture and warmth alternating. However, as summer begins, inland parts of the Bay Area will likely see sustained warming and drying trends, Lutz added.

Microclimates also play a role in local fire behavior. Deputy Chief James Allen of Cal Fire’s San Mateo-Santa Cruz Unit explained that coastal areas are often moderated by the ocean’s marine layer, while inland areas tend to dry out faster. Chelsea Burkett, a fire prevention specialist for Cal Fire’s Santa Clara Unit, noted that regions like Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara usually see fires earlier due to fast-drying grass.

Federal funding cuts are another concern. Budget reductions have led to layoffs and buyouts in agencies like the U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service—organizations that employ most of the nation’s wildland firefighters. Though most cuts have hit non-firefighting roles, many certified firefighters who help during wildfire season have also been affected, which could hinder response in a busy fire year.

Allen acknowledged the impact but stressed that Cal Fire and Bay Area local departments are fully staffed and ready. Unlike other parts of the state, the Bay Area relies more on local resources, which remain strong.

“We’re all fully staffed,” Allen said. “Pre-season training is wrapping up, and residents can expect the usual strong response.”

Burkett urged the public to take preparedness seriously, especially given the high fire risk. She recommended signing up for local alert systems, packing emergency go-bags, and staying aware of weather changes and local incidents.

Home preparedness tips can be found at readyforwildfire.org, and updates on active fires and evacuations are available at fire.ca.gov.