Lisa Hass, dressed in work boots, jeans, and a “FARMER” shirt, lifted a fence wire with a pole, allowing dozens of half-ton heifers to move toward greener pastures under the Wisconsin summer sun.

“We call them a rainbow herd,” Hass said, laughing. “We’ve got a mix of Holsteins, Jersey crosses, Normandy, Dutch Belted.”

Dairy farming has long been a staple in the Mississippi River dells, but these colorful farms now face the challenge of either scaling up or shutting down.

For years, small dairies on the brink of extinction found a lifeline in organic milk. However, that industry is now facing its own difficulties, raising concerns that a decline in family farms could threaten the survival of rural towns where local businesses depend on agriculture to support the economy.

Since the early 1970s, 90% of farms in Minnesota and Wisconsin have sold their dairy cattle, a trend that continues today. Last November, numerous Minnesota dairy farmers chose not to renew their milking permits.

“When family farms fail, main street businesses start to fail, and school systems begin to suffer,” said Jeff Frank, CEO of Organic Valley. “There’s a direct link between farming and the health of rural communities.”

Despite this, not all farmers are convinced. Many are drawn to the economies of scale, which focus on increasing the number of milking cows.

A USDA economist’s 2020 report showed that as farmers expanded their herds from under 50 to more than 200 cows, the cost of producing a hundredweight of dairy dropped from over $33 to just above $20.

This economic reality is difficult to overlook. According to the latest agricultural census, there were 775 dairies in Minnesota and Wisconsin with more than 500 cows in 2022, triple the number from two decades earlier.

“There are two efficiencies in dairy farming,” said Rick Alberts, a dairy farmer from Pine Island, Minn., who attended a local farm visit by Governor Tim Walz in July. “There’s profit per cow and economies of scale.”

He explained how milking parlor technology enables more cows to be milked per hour.

Earlier this summer, news broke that Riverview Dairy in Morris, Minn., plans to build a 25,000-cow operation near Fargo in Hillsboro, N.D. Meanwhile, South Dakota’s dairy cow population has surged by 70% since 2019, with large operations springing up along Interstate-29.

However, along the Mississippi River, the relationship between dairy farms and small towns seems to be unraveling.

Last November, a judge in Winona County upheld the county’s decision to cap a family-owned dairy from expanding beyond 1,000 cows. In Wisconsin, east of the St. Croix River, citizen groups have had less success in protesting dairy expansions, some of which involve over 5,000 cows.

At a meeting of the Wisconsin National Resources Board in Turtle Lake, former Emerald, Wis., resident Kim Dupre expressed concern about officials ignoring the increase in harmful nitrates in private wells due to manure from concentrated animal feedlots.

“What are rural residents supposed to do?” Dupre asked during public comment. “The disparity in access to safe drinking water between rural and urban, suburban Wisconsin was striking to me.”

A University of Minnesota report highlighted that the average dairy farm generates $1.6 million in economic activity. However, there’s growing sentiment that rural America’s future shouldn’t be solely tied to agriculture.

“Agriculture was the primary industry in the early development of this country,” said Benjamin Winchester, a rural sociologist with the University of Minnesota Extension, who challenges the notion that agriculture is the backbone of rural America. “Today, 95 percent of rural people are not involved in agriculture or an ag-related field.”

Still, in some parts of rural America, the connection between farms and main streets remains strong. Of the top-10 dairy-producing counties in Minnesota, three (Winona, Wabasha, and Stevens) lost population between 2000 and 2020 but increased their number of cows.

These trends could have significant implications, from economic impact to national security. In January, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack voiced concern over rural population declines, noting that a “disproportionate number” of veterans “come from these rural communities.”

Despite the challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for organic farmers.

Earlier this year, Organic Valley welcomed 100 new farmers from Pennsylvania, New York, Indiana, and Kentucky into its cooperative. For the Hass family, who joined Organic Valley in its inaugural year in 1988, going organic was a simple economic decision.

“We’ve been doing organic since the ’70s,” said Al Hass, Lisa Hass’s husband. “We just never got paid for it.”

The Hass farm, nestled on a narrow road that feels like a journey into the past, features an Amish neighbor’s wagon on the front lawn and a rainbow herd roaming the fields.

After school, the Hass’ teenage grandson helps with farm chores, and their daughter, Tammy Hass, manages the herd. Yet, even in this idyllic setting, the family is aware of the economic challenges facing the dairy industry.

In January, French food giant Danone sold its struggling organic holdings, including the popular Horizon Organic brand, to a Beverly Hills-based private equity firm. Organic acreage continues to decline across the U.S. Earlier this summer, George Siemon, Organic Valley’s co-founder and former CEO, told Lancaster Farming that “the market’s gone flat” in organics.

Still, there is optimism within Organic Valley’s small-town offices and among newly enrolled farms. While a widely cited market research study noted that Gen Z consumed 20% less fluid milk than the national average in 2022, it didn’t account for the growing popularity of cheese and butter.

“If you look at dairy as a whole,” Frank said, “There are plenty of bright spots.”

The Hass family continues to expand their farm. Although they left dairy farming a couple of decades ago for various reasons, they returned to it after about a 10-year hiatus. The stability provided by the organic market allowed them to re-enter the industry. Lisa Hass pointed out that conventional dairy prices have remained roughly the same as what they received in 1988.

“Conventional dairy has those price fluctuations,” Lisa Hass said. “But with organic, we know what we’re going to get. So we’re pretty fortunate to be doing organic.”